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Note 053 min readThe Normal-Looking Leak

Your funnel may not be the problem

Top-of-funnel is the easiest place to look and the most expensive place to fix. Three questions to ask before you touch it.

The thing costing you the most money is usually the thing that looks completely normal.

Obvious problems get attention, and attention gets them fixed. The expensive one is the pricing you set at launch and never went back to. The channel that’s “working fine.” The report everyone trusts because nobody has ever checked it against the bank.

$918 on $600, reported as 11.7×

A $20M skincare brand had an agency reporting 11.7× return on ad spend, and the CEO’s question was how to buy more traffic, the ad budget on steroids. I checked one “winning” campaign against Shopify. It had produced $918 in net sales against $600 in spend, so the real number was closer to 1.5×. Traffic was never the problem. The store converted at 0.97%, a third of the platform average, which is wild for a $20M brand, and the email flows that should have caught the buyers who bounced had been switched off.

Same traffic, same budget: 2.73% and 14×. No magic. All of it came from closing three leaks.

Three questions before you touch the funnel

  • Is the number real? Reconcile the reported return against the bank. If it doesn’t hold, that’s finding one, and everything built on top of it is suspect.
  • What happens to the people who already said yes? Conversion, onboarding, the first invoice. If qualified demand is dying after the click or after the close, more demand just multiplies the loss, and a small leak turns massive.
  • What got set once and never revisited? The discount that became the price. The threshold that surprises buyers at checkout. The flow someone switched off during a migration two years ago and nobody switched back on.

When I find the real leak, the founder says almost the same thing every time. “That? We’ve done it that way for years.” Which is exactly why it stayed invisible, and exactly why it kept costing them.

Know where this has to go, and not how?

Twenty minutes. Tell me where you want this company to be in two years and I’ll tell you what I’d go look at first.