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Field note 053 min readFrom the notebook · The Normal-Looking Leak

Your funnel may not be the problem

Top-of-funnel is the easiest place to look and the most expensive place to fix. Three questions to ask before you touch it.

The thing costing you the most money is the thing that looks completely normal.

It’s never the flashing red light. Obvious problems get attention. They get fixed. It’s the pricing you set at launch and never revisited. The channel that’s “working fine.” The report everyone trusts because nobody has checked it against the bank.

$918 on $600, reported as 11.7×

A $20M skincare brand had an agency reporting 11.7× return on ad spend. The CEO’s question was how to get more traffic. Cross-referenced against Shopify, one “winning” campaign had generated $918 in net sales against $600 in spend. The real number was closer to 1.5×. Traffic was never the problem. The store was converting at 0.97%, a third of the platform average, and the email flows that should have caught the buyers who bounced were switched off.

Same traffic, same budget: 2.73% and 14×. Nothing was added. Three leaks were closed.

Three questions before you touch the funnel

  • Is the number real? Reconcile the reported return against the bank. If it doesn’t hold, that’s finding one, and everything built on it is suspect.
  • What happens to the people who already said yes? Conversion, onboarding, the first invoice. If qualified demand is dying after the click or after the close, more demand multiplies the loss.
  • What was set once and never revisited? The discount that became the price. The threshold that surprises buyers at checkout. The flow someone turned off during a migration two years ago.

When I find the real leak in a business, the founder’s first reaction is almost always the same: “That? We’ve done it that way for years.” That’s exactly why it was invisible. And exactly why it was expensive.

Where is your company leaking revenue?

Twelve questions, five minutes, no email. A read on where to look first.